Midweek Preview: 31st January 2007

Manchester United vs Watford

"Man Utd's only weak link is the last 10 minutes of a match..." - Sheena


I apologise for the recent lack of updates but Jay has been gallivanting around the world (as usual) and I myself have been quite overwhelmed with stuff even though I'm stuck in Singapore. So anyway, let's get down to the business of the Watford match happening tonight.

To be very honest I don't know too much about Watford, except 3 things: They're at the bottom of the table, they have Man Utd's up-and-coming goalie Ben Foster on loan (and he won't be able to play against us tonight due to the terms of his loan), and they just sold their best player, striker Ashley Young.

Taking all this into consideration, no one in their right minds would bet on a Watford win. Without their top goalkeeper and their top striker, this is a game which one would call a gilt-edged gift for Manchester United - the three points should be sewn up tight before Watford can even say "Look out".

Furthermore Wayne Rooney has thankfully rediscovered his scoring touch, and hopefully he can carry this form over into tonight's match. Cristiano Ronaldo is still sparkling even though his run of goals seems to have somewhat dried up, and the Watford defence will hate facing him. Judging by the previous game against Portsmouth on Saturday, where Manchester United had two perfectly legitimate goals disallowed, Man Utd obviously have no problems scoring and they definitely don't need to rely on just 2 or 3 people to do it too.

It's the defence that is becoming slightly worrisome. In two matches in a row, Man Utd has conceded goals after the 80th minute mark. These weren't the only times either; this season, Man Utd have tended to concede late goals and end up either on the losing end or set themselves up for some final very nerve-racking minutes. Against weaker teams like Watford where Man Utd have the ability to score 3 goals or more, one last-minute goal conceded would just be a consolation for the defeated team. But against the big clubs, this tendency could be potentially fatal, as witness both losses against Arsenal and the draw with Chelsea at Old Trafford, all of which had Arsenal and Chelsea scoring in the last 10 minutes.

Unlike what Arsene Wenger suggested, I don't think it's a lack of stamina. Watching the team play, it seems more like sheer complacency. Everyone believes that since the match is winding down to a close and they're still leading, they can afford to relax. But obviously at the top level, there's never a moment when you can let your guard down. But that's what Man Utd is doing.

The defence needs to sort themselves out, and fast, before a collection of more such blunders down the road costs the team the title.


Man to watch (Watford): Seriously, I have no idea.

Man to watch (Manchester United): Wayne Rooney edges out Cristiano Ronaldo for this one. The kid is on fire.

Jaywalk's Encyclopaedia of Bookies' Odds says: Man Utd are giving 2 balls with 1.975 odds to clear. Hmmm... the bookies seem scared of losing money. To win anything Man Utd have to win by 3 clear goals. Ordinarily I'd say that wouldn't be a problem against Watford, but after events of recent weeks... stay away.


Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 03 - 04 Feb 2007

Greetings from Las Vegas as I sneak in 5 minutes to drop off a quick blog.

We have the Merseyside derby and a good Spurs vs ManUtd match this week.

Let's get it on.

p.s. Results will be slightly delayed due to my traveling schedule.

EPL41: SAT 03/02 Liverpool vs Everton on ESPN at 20:45pm SIN/HKT

EPL42: SUN 04/02 Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United on ESPN at 23:55pm SIN/HKT

Good luck and good game!

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 20 - 21 Jan 2007

Looks like my conspiracy theory was proven right as the ManUtd failed to capitalise on the opportunity to go 9 points clear.

Kudos to cha_dum_yen for his excellent charge of late to cut my lead to a mere point. ianrush must be kicking himself for his lack of faith in Liverpool as the judas predicted a loss against his own team. Had he kept his faith, he would have taken the lead this week. Ha!

Well, anyway, next week is FA Cup weekend again and so the SPUG EPL Prediction League will be back the week after. I will be in the US during that week and so I would probably be asking Sheena to cover my games previews. The SPUG EPL Prediction League will remain business as usual.

See you in 2 weeks!


SPUG EPL Prediction League "Perfect Score" Hall Of Fame
Perfect Score = 2 correct-score predictions in a single weekend and hence the award of the full 10 points.

1) Cha_Dum_Yen (24 Sep 2006), (25 Nov 2006)
2) Bedokian (24 Sep 2006)
3) TheSaint888 (24 Sep 2006)
4) Voxeros (24 Sep 2006)
5) David.hvp (25 Nov 2006)

Scoring System
3-Points for a correct outcome (Win, Lose or Draw)
1-point each for correct score on each side.

Double Entry
Later submission shall override earlier submission.

Penalty
No points for submission after kick-off. (Disqualification)

SPUG Blackout
Also, this is a mirror for the SPUG Server where the actual prediction game is being carried out at http://www.spug.net/showthread.php?t=85183. In the event SPUG server goes down, we will automatically carry on the prediction game at this blog site.

As usual:

1) If you have spotted a mistake, please let me know where and what so that I can amend them accordingly.
2) Please check your scores for accuracy as soon as possible before I update the table during the next round of scores. Once the table has been updated, the old table will be overwritten.
3) In case you are still seeing the old table even if I have announced a new update, please refresh your browser to reload the table.

Weekend Outlook (21 Jan 2007)

Arsenal vs Manchester United

"...It seems almost unfair to a manager as talented as Martin O'Neil to have to suffer the indignity of managing a unmotivated lacklustre team (Aston Villa)..."

- JayWalk, 21 Jan 2007

They were never close in the FA Cup round and they were never close in last week's EPL fixture as we completed the treble over Aston Villa this season. It seems almost unfair to a manager as talented as Martin O'Neil to have to suffer the indignity of managing a unmotivated lacklustre team.

Possession-wise, we did not hit the 60% mark but we more than adequately made it up with a 27 vs 7 shots attempted and we more than tripled their shots-on-goal with a 17 vs 5 score.

I would like to talk more about the game but seriously, it was so one-sided that I don't have anything else to write beyond the 2 paragraphs.

Anyway, I resisted writing this outlook early (Saturday) as I wanted to wait for the outcome of the Liverpool-Chelsea game.

I hate to say this but Liverpool won.

Yay!

*cringe*

As of right now, Chelsea is closer to Liverpool in terms of points than us. The million dollar question of the day: Can this be the day we pull 9-points ahead? If so, then would it be safe to say that this season's title is in the bag, barring any mishaps? Read on as I will reveal what I think of this later on.

JayWalk The Talk: Our form against Arsenal has been pretty even-stevens and the last time we won on Arsenal soil (Highbury) was in Feb 1995 where we won 4-2. Since then, there were 2 goaless draws and our most recent match-up was a 0-1 defeat at Old Trafford.

Arsenal will be looking forward to complete the double and at the same time close up the 3-point gap opened up by Liverpool. ManUtd on the other hand would be looking forward to pull 9 points ahead and exacting the home defeat earlier in the season.

The last we met, we were completely out paced, out played, out classed and out gunned by the Gunners with their very fluid passing game. It was so good that we did not have an answer to Wenger's tactics that we surrendered 0-1 meekly. This is Arsenal's strongest weapon as well as their weakest chink in the armour.

Arsenal's passing game is so good that they don't have a Plan B, should their opponents successfully counter it. This, I am sure Sir Alex would have spotted it and will be targeting this very chink as our road to success today.

I would expect Fergie to start Larsson as the evergreen striker is just the man to provide the goals when we catch them on the counter-attack. Larsson's experience with Barcelona will be invaluable as he would know how to take Arsenal apart from his ECL days.

In the sick bay, we have a full and healthy squad to pick from. So much so, that we were able to farm out Rossi to Parma. Expect Dong FangZhou (Zhou or Zhuo?) to show up in FA Cup matches as early as this season.

Over at Arsenal, Gallas is out while Ljungberg is out of favour. Gilberto is suspended but fortunately, Henry is back to take back the Captain's armband.

One interesting statistic is that Arsenal is the team that has been awarded the most penalty kicks in EPL matches this season. They converted 7 out of 8. Frankly, I ask how many were awarded as a result of a successful dive? I won't be surprised to see van Persie trying this today.

Fortunately, referee of the day is Mark Riley and rumour-mill has it that this referee tend to favour ManUtd a little more. Still, I think it is going to be a very busy day for Riley as both teams have a tendency to bring the game into an over-boil. However, I think it will be more subdued with the departure of Ashley Cole and Roy Keane. Either way, I still think there will be quite a flurry of card waving throughout the game.

JayWalk The Walk: Bookies plays even-ball today with ManUtd being less favoured with a 2.125 decimal odds to beat it. Both teams have had a good whole week's rest but looking ahead, Arsenal have a League Cup game in midweek against arch rival Tottenham Hotspur, while ManUtd continue to enjoy their rest leading up to next Saturday's FA Cup game against Portsmouth.

As many are aware, I am a sucker for conspiracy theory and I think today's game would be determine by Money. I don't think the "forces" behind will allow a ManUtd victory today. Think about it, wouldn't the Premiership be more exciting if the top 2 fall, leaving the 3rd and 4th to close up the gap to mount a more exciting run in to the season's end? The premiership may just as well be over as early as today, if ManUtd does indeed pull away. Think about the drop in TV ratings, gate attendance, media coverage, coffee shop talk and bets. Any drop in any of these means a drop in revenue. Surely the "forces" would not allow this. Yes? No?

Well, like I said, pure speculative conspiracy theory. Take with a pinch of salt.

My verdict? I doubt if ManUtd will win today but I can't say for sure, Arsenal will win either. A loss today will not change anything as we will still be 6 points ahead. I forsee this game ending with a draw and the consolatory point for ManUtd to extend their lead to 7 points and Arsenal get to keep their 100% undefeated-at-Emirates record.

However, this is a game between two teams who are ranked 1st and 2nd in the scoring department and surely there is no way this game will end goaless. 2-2 draw perhaps?

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 20 - 21 Jan 2007

Touted as the title deciding weekend as the top 4 teams face off against each other.

This weekend is sure to split the SPUG EPL prediction league into 2 (or even 4) as fans would have to choose between their allegiance and their predictions, should the two of them not coincide.

Perhaps this would be the weekend to see a great reshuffle in the league table. With only a measly 3-point gap between me and my nearest challenger, we may see a new league leader at the end of this week.

Here we go!

EPL39: SAT 20/01 Liverpool vs Chelsea on ESPN at 20:40pm SIN/HKT

EPL40: SUN 21/01 Arsenal vs Manchester United on ESPN at 23:55pm SIN/HKT

Good luck and good game!

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 13 - 14 Jan 2007

Before I had the chance to check the scores this morning for the results of Sunday's game, I read Cha Dum Yen's "double happiness" comment and thought that our friend managed to score his third Perfect 10. Alas, it was not so and his cryptic message remained, well..... cryptic.

Anyway, glad to survive another week at the top while maintaining the slimmest of the 3-point lead. Before that is anything to celebrate about, we have ianrush with a ferocious 9-point showing and Cha Dum Yen's 6 to blow this league into a 5-horse race.

Fret not, my dear friends outside the Top 5 at the moment. This just comes to show that the race is pretty much open at this stage and that it is merely just an step to the Top 5 before the league title contention.

Gambate!


SPUG EPL Prediction League "Perfect Score" Hall Of Fame
Perfect Score = 2 correct-score predictions in a single weekend and hence the award of the full 10 points.

1) Cha_Dum_Yen (24 Sep 2006), (25 Nov 2006)
2) Bedokian (24 Sep 2006)
3) TheSaint888 (24 Sep 2006)
4) Voxeros (24 Sep 2006)
5) David.hvp (25 Nov 2006)

Scoring System
3-Points for a correct outcome (Win, Lose or Draw)
1-point each for correct score on each side.

Double Entry
Later submission shall override earlier submission.

Penalty
No points for submission after kick-off. (Disqualification)

SPUG Blackout
Also, this is a mirror for the SPUG Server where the actual prediction game is being carried out at http://www.spug.net/showthread.php?t=85183. In the event SPUG server goes down, we will automatically carry on the prediction game at this blog site.

As usual:

1) If you have spotted a mistake, please let me know where and what so that I can amend them accordingly.
2) Please check your scores for accuracy as soon as possible before I update the table during the next round of scores. Once the table has been updated, the old table will be overwritten.
3) In case you are still seeing the old table even if I have announced a new update, please refresh your browser to reload the table.

Weekend Outlook (13 Jan 2007)

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

"...Don't let last week's 2-1 scoreline against Aston Villa in 3rd Round FA Cup fool you. ...It was never a close game...."

- JayWalk, 13 Jan 2007

Don't let last week's 2-1 scoreline against Aston Villa in 3rd Round FA Cup fool you. Despite needing Solksjaer to score the match winner in the dying seconds of injury time, it was never a close game. We were merely unlucky when it comes to conversion.

With 31 shots (9 on goal) versus a mere 9 (5 on goal), Aston Villa were no where near with their meagre 29% possession against 71%. All these while with key players rested.

Anyway, the headlines in recent weeks have been on the managers, starting off with Benitez bitching about his management board after a 3-6 thrashing by Arsenal. Funny seeing a manager blaming the whole world but himself when things goes awry. Mourihno isn't getting much sympathies from football fans with his bitching about the lack of money in the current January transfer window, contributing to Chelsea's current loss of form. Again, funny coming from a team who had splashed over a million pound sterling in the last couple of years.

Recently, there has been talks about unhappy Mourihno leaving Chelsea but I would absolutely rubbish that. Could this news be "leaked" on purpose to unsettle the team? Talk about dropping rocks after one has fallen into the well.

Oh well, as far as psychological warfare amongst the managers is concerned, we really need not go this path. A simple win against Aston Villa will be enough to exert the pressure on Chelsea as they fall 9-points behind. Granted that it may be just for the next 24 hours, no one in the Chelsea camp right now, would have the confidence to say that they would redeem the additional 3 points deficit for sure. As long as Wigan can hold Chelsea to a draw at half-time, expect Chelsea to start panicking.

So here's what we should do. Just grab the win against Aston Villa and let Chelsea do the worrying. If they win, we are still 6 points ahead. In other words, there is no downside to this for us as long as we stick to our game plan.

Afternote: As it turned out, I made the mistake of thinking that the Chelsea-Wigan game is on Sunday. Instead, it is played at the same time as the ManUtd-AstonVilla game. Nevertheless, I am sure the Chelsea camp would have had their radios tuned in to the ManUtd's game.

JayWalk The Talk: For the first time this season, we actually have a surplus in the team selection. Larsson good form will earn himself on the pitch again ahead of Saha who, although is back to fitness, should be rested for an additional week. Expect Solksjaer to replace Larsson somewhere in the second half.

Vidic, van der Sar and Scholes are expected to reappear on the starting sheet after getting their deserving rest last week. If Carrick starts, it will be his 250th start of his career while Silvestre will be relishing to complete his 350th game for ManUtd, if selected today while Brown is nursing a flu.

On the Villian side, Kiraly has been released back to Crystal Palace ahead of schedule as both Taylor and Sorensen are available for selection. However, I think it may be a bit premature since neither goalie is going to be match sharp but then again, it is not like Kiraly can improve the situation any better than it is right now. Aston Villa has a long list of injuries which includes Laursen, Garner, Sutton, Delaney, Petrov and Moore. Bardsley (on loan from ManUtd) cannot play this week against his parent club but Mellberg is back from suspension. Ex-Red Devil Djemba Djemba will not feature in this reunion as the midfielder has been shipped out to Burnley on loan until the end of this season.

JayWalk The Walk: Odds for ManUtd remained the same as per last week with a 1.975 decimal odds to beat the handicap of -1.5 balls. As for 1X2, the odds has been further lowered to 1.23 from last week's 1.28.

There are a few records waiting to be set this week.

A ManUtd win today will set the record (in the present EPL) for the highest return in 23 games. The current record was 56 points in 23 games back in the 1993-94 season.

A goal for ManUtd today will mark the 50th league goal of the season and I am punting for Larsson to receive this honour.

A ManUtd win today will stretch our unbeaten record against Aston Villa (both home and away) to 23. An all-time record for ManUtd against a single club. We won the last 8, by the way.

Verdict? I think we would easily beat Aston Villa by 2 goals of more.

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 13 - 14 Jan 2007

There was no game last weekend as it was an FA Cup weekend but I am glad to announce we are back in business this weekend.

I am really looking forward to Sunday's game as it could go either way i.e. predictions will be all over the place. Hopefully then, we would see more movement within the league table.

So Everton win, Reading win or all square? Gentlemen, start your engines!

EPL37: SAT 13/01 Watford vs Liverpool on ESPN at 20:45pm SIN/HKT

EPL38: SUN 14/01 Everton vs Reading on ESPN at 21:45pm SIN/HKT

Good luck and good game!

Weekend Outlook (07 Jan 2007)

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

"...perhaps it's time to dream big and chase a second Treble?..."

- JayWalk, 07 Jan 2007

So we were held to a 2-2 draw by Newcastle resulting the dropping of 2 points. Big deal. It takes a small miracle to be able to pull off 4 victories out of 4 games in the space of 10 days of what is known as the Christmas/New Year fixtures. So I'm not complaining with our 10 out of a possible total of 12 points haul over the festive season.

In fact, the moment ManUtd beat Reading 3-2 the week before, I knew right away, that we were going to drop points in the subsequent game regardless of opponent.

Lo and behold, my prediction of a draw, placed with Sheena the day before kick-off, came true. This is perhaps known as the logic of the illogical?

We dominated the Toon Army during that game and granted that both sides were even in the Shots-On-Goal department, the SOG map showed that most of Newcastle's shots were outside the penalty box while ManUtd's were mainly concentrated inside. That comes to show that Newcastle were having difficult penetrating the ManUtd defence and their two goals were merely the helping hands of the football gods.

Anyway, ManUtd is in a comfortable position right now. Having cleared the first round of the ECL and 6 points atop the EPL, perhaps it's time to dream big and chase a second Treble? Sir Alex Ferguson was conferred the Commander of the British Empire (CBE) when he completed the Treble back in 1999. Would there be a Knight Commander of the British Empire (KBE) or even the Knight Grand Cross of the British Empire (GBE) for the fiery Scot, if he pulls off the Double Treble? I wait with baited breath.

JayWalk The Talk: It's the FA Cup this weekend as ManUtd kick off their campaign from the 3rd Round. The Red Devils hosts Aston Villa at home, a game which will be repeated the following week when both sides meet again at Old Trafford to fulfill their EPL fixture. Are we going to see the exact same results for both games? We'll see.

Anyway, in FA Cup head-to-head since history, ManUtd played Aston Villa 10 times and won 8 of them. The last time Aston Villa beat ManUtd in the FA Cup was in 1957. It was the finals and Aston Villa beat ManUtd 2-1 to lift the trophy, which conincidentally was the last time Aston Villa won the FA Cup. Well, if you want to go into further specifics then it was 1920 when ManUtd last lost to Aston Villa at Old Trafford in an FA Cup match. Again, it was by the same score line.

Well, the picture is not as bleak if you were to consider all competitions then the last time ManUtd lost to Aston Villa at Old Trafford was in 1983 with Peter Withe (current Indonesian National Coach) scoring both goals and again by the same 2-1 score. Still the year of 1983 doesn't offer much of a consolation.

Their last 5 head-to-heads were all EPL fixtures where ManUtd won all 5.

Ok, enough of trivia for a while as we head to the dressing room. Looks like Louis Saha is the only doubt for ManUtd selection (groin injury) and perfect timing to make way for Henrik Larsson to make his debut. Expect Van der Sar to be rested as well. Over at Aston Villa and we have Sutton, Taylor, Delaney, Laursen and Moore filling up the casualty sheet for the visitor's side.

Form-wise for Aston Villa has been erratic. They did hold Chelsea to a respectable 0-0 draw but critics could only scratch their heads as the Villans came off an embarrassing 1-2 defeat in the hands of the Addicks and haven't won a game since 11 Nov 2006 which is unbecoming of a manager of Martin O'Neil's calibre.

JayWalk The Walk: Bookies are making ManUtd give up a 1.5 ball handicap and a 1.975 (and slowly inching towards 2.000) decimal odds to beat it. On the 1X2 front, ManUtd has a 1.28 odds to win outright.

In a knock-out tournament, goal difference doesn't come into play and as such, a 1-0 victory is the same as a 6-0 win. Hence, I see less motivation for ManUtd to keep scoring and expecting them to want to hit the cruise control button as early as possible.

Having said that, I'd stay away from punting on this game.

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 30 Dec 2006 - 02 Jan 2007

Happy New Year to everyone and we are lucky to get blogger back online in time for the league table update due to the undersea cable damage that I've mentioned earlier.

Looks like weimeng challenge for the lead was shortlived as TheSaint888 managed to wrestle back the 2nd spot while I pull away to a 3-point lead to survive another weekend in pole position.

We have 6 6-pointers this week and special mention goes out to ianrush for his unwavering loyalty to Liverpool has paid off with a handsome break into the Top 5.

p.s. Again, due to the fact that the second match is close to midweek, I would like ihawk98 or weimeng to give me the matches for this coming weekend asap. Thanks.


SPUG EPL Prediction League "Perfect Score" Hall Of Fame
Perfect Score = 2 correct-score predictions in a single weekend and hence the award of the full 10 points.

1) Cha_Dum_Yen (24 Sep 2006), (25 Nov 2006)
2) Bedokian (24 Sep 2006)
3) TheSaint888 (24 Sep 2006)
4) Voxeros (24 Sep 2006)
5) David.hvp (25 Nov 2006)

Scoring System
3-Points for a correct outcome (Win, Lose or Draw)
1-point each for correct score on each side.

Double Entry
Later submission shall override earlier submission.

Penalty
No points for submission after kick-off. (Disqualification)

SPUG Blackout
Also, this is a mirror for the SPUG Server where the actual prediction game is being carried out at http://www.spug.net/showthread.php?t=85183. In the event SPUG server goes down, we will automatically carry on the prediction game at this blog site.

As usual:

1) If you have spotted a mistake, please let me know where and what so that I can amend them accordingly.
2) Please check your scores for accuracy as soon as possible before I update the table during the next round of scores. Once the table has been updated, the old table will be overwritten.
3) In case you are still seeing the old table even if I have announced a new update, please refresh your browser to reload the table.

Happy 2007!

Happy New Year to one and all and apologies for missing the last two Weekend Outlooks due to my vacation distraction as well as the recent undersea cable damage. Apparently, the recent quake in Taiwan damaged 6 of the 7 undersea cables serving Hong Kong and we were down to a crawl. Expect congestion to worsen as more people go back to the office today.

Anyway, I am pasting the match stats for the 4 matches over the Christmas/New Year period here as it would be too many to talk about in the coming Weekend Outlook at one go.