Weekend Outlook (31 Mar 2007)

Manchester United vs Blackburn Rovers

"...More often than not, players come back injured. All the national squad managers have to do is to ship them back and all the problems are washed off their hands...."

- JayWalk, 31 Mar 2007

I can understand why club managers are always at odds with the FA over international duty. More often than not, players come back injured. All the national squad managers have to do is to ship them back after the game and all the problems are washed off their hands.

Before I go on further with this topic, let's review ManUtd last game, a fortnight ago. It was a game nobody wanted due to the already hectic fixture schedule but nevertheless a tactical necessity as ManUtd were pretty strapped in the manpower department and needed two steps to climb, instead of one, to reach the next level of the FA Cup tournament.

Looking at the stats, Boro had no chance against us as our shots-on-goal was a one-sided 11 to 3. However, Lady Luck was playing hard to get with us but finally relented at the 76th minute, with a merciful penalty conversion, courtesy of C.Ronaldo to put us through. As usual, C.Ronaldo was the man who fell in the box to earn the penalty. Dive? Not this time as it was clearly a mistake on the part of Jonathan Woodgate. Problem is that with C.Ronaldo's integrity in question all the time, he no longer enjoys the benefit of the doubt these days anymore.

Anyway, as we continue to be in the good books of Lady Luck, we were awarded an easy semi-final encounter against Watford at Villa Park. What I am about to say next may sound a little cocky but history has shown that ManUtd has never lost a FA Cup semi-final (under Sir Alex Ferguson) and as such, it doesn't really matter who we meet. We will win. Regardless. The only up side to this is that we would have an relatively easier fixture surrounding the 14-15 Apr 2007 date.

Prior to the semi-final game, ManUtd will be hosting the return leg of the ECL Quarter-Final against AS Roma. Certainly, a relatively weaker opponent to follow that weekend is most welcomed. Thereafter, we have 2 home games against Sheffield United and Middlesbrough.

On the Chelsea side, they would have returned from Valencia in midweek to take on a better rested Blackburn Rovers. Thereafter, 2 away games against relegation fight-or-die West Ham and a stubborn Newcastle.

From the looks of it, this looks like a good window of opportunity for Chelsea to drop points. Who knows? The title may just be decided there and then, thus rendering the Chelsea-ManUtd clash on 09 May 2007 inconsequential.

Well, coming back from the club-vs-nation debate. Club managers are split in this as the lesser teams with no players on international duty would have relish this period for a desperately needed rest. This weekend is sure to favour the lesser (thus fresher) clubs as the big boys would have most, in not all of the players out playing in the Euro2008 qualifiers earlier in the week.

JayWalk The Talk: The squad is already in tatters prior to entering the international fixture week and we were further decimated with more of injuries streaming in. With the players no longer with the national squad, each country's FA all act blur with regards to the injuries occurred during their charge. Out of sight. Out of mind.

Scholes is set to return after completing his 3-game suspension and would certainly lead the charge today towards the league title. Solksjaer is available while van der Sar is back in between the sticks and perhaps we will start to see a return of clean sheets? Bad news is that Neville, Saha, Silvestre and Fletcher are out. C.Ronaldo is also doubtful.

Fortunately, Blackburn aren't doing too fantastic either as Bentley, Todd, Savage, Ooijer and Reid are all out while Mokoena and Nelsen are both set to return after missing the last game.

A few milestones are waiting to be set in today's game. Rio Ferdinand should be starting his 450th career start that spanned from West Ham to Bournemouth to Leeds to ManUtd. O'Shea is looking to chalk up his 250th start for an English club while Neville has to wait 3 weeks before collecting his 350th start with ManUtd. In the mean time, Vidic will be given the call-up to the squad and thus picking up his 50th ManUtd game.

JayWalk The Walk: Again, ManUtd is giving a 1-1/4 ball handicap with a decimal odds of 2.000 to clear it. If we win this, it would be our 4th double over Blackburn Rovers in EPL history. Blackburn is 5-0-5 in recent EPL games and it seems that they fared rather poorly against stronger teams and have a knack of conceding goals. I think even with a depleted ManUtd squad, we should still see them knock at least a couple of goals past Friedel. Smith to finally get onto the score sheet?

Anyway, as long as ManUtd can lock down Benni McCarthy, I would think winning this handicap would be easy peasy.

4 more wins to go.

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 31 Mar - 01 Apr 2007

Ok folks, after a blank weekend due to international fixtures, we are back in business again.

Special instructions from ihawk98 this time.

"a. all players to use same userID from now on. (e.g. don't use ihawk98 for 1 week and ihawk the next week)
b. the format of the prediction is 1) ihawk98 2-1"

Anyway, here is the list of participants for your necessary reference.

Voxeros
cha_dum_yen
weimeng
ianrush
TheSaint888
crash632
Bedokian
Necroastr
ihawk98
limyengchuan
Apollo
alexsim
Everton
cool402
edwinsng
Delay
Beaver21
YY
wanwei
david.hvp
ngbhwee
redeel
Friday13
Dua_Kee
holding
fusiongear88
Uryth
Cornball
Tim

I am not sure if there is a case-sensitive issue. Cha Dum Yen or ihawk98 will have to further elaborate on this.

EPL51: SAT 31/03 Liverpool vs Arsenal on ESPN at 19:40am SIN/HKT

EPL52: SUN 01/04 Tottenham Hotspur vs Reading on ESPN at 23:55pm SIN/HKT

Good luck and good game!

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 17 - 18 Mar 2007

In the name of safety, I blew my chance to pull away from the pack. Damn.

I guess I got cold feet at the last minute when almost everyone was picking Liverpool to win. I should have stuck to my guns and hang on for a draw. Hence, my salute to the braves in the likes of limyengchuan, bedokian and apollo for their steadfastness. A well deserved 3-points from Sunday's game.

Anyway, it wasn't all bad for I still managed to hang on to top spot albeit with 2 points less than last week.

Welcome Crash632 to the 100-milestone. We have Bedokian coming up next. Good luck.


SPUG EPL Prediction League "Perfect Score" Hall Of Fame
Perfect Score = 2 correct-score predictions in a single weekend and hence the award of the full 10 points.

1) Cha_Dum_Yen (24 Sep 2006), (25 Nov 2006)
2) Bedokian (24 Sep 2006)
3) TheSaint888 (24 Sep 2006)
4) Voxeros (24 Sep 2006)
5) David.hvp (25 Nov 2006)

Scoring System
3-Points for a correct outcome (Win, Lose or Draw)
1-point each for correct score on each side.

Double Entry
Later submission shall override earlier submission.

Penalty
No points for submission after kick-off. (Disqualification)

SPUG Blackout
Also, this is a mirror for the SPUG Server where the actual prediction game is being carried out at http://www.spug.net/showthread.php?t=85183. In the event SPUG server goes down, we will automatically carry on the prediction game at this blog site.

As usual:

1) If you have spotted a mistake, please let me know where and what so that I can amend them accordingly.
2) Please check your scores for accuracy as soon as possible before I update the table during the next round of scores. Once the table has been updated, the old table will be overwritten.
3) In case you are still seeing the old table even if I have announced a new update, please refresh your browser to reload the table.

Midweek Outlook (19 March 2007)

Manchester United vs Middlesbrough

"...if Man U win this replay, Apr 15 against Chelsea is inconsequential...."

-Gary, 19 March 2007

Man U have all sorts of problems now. But the match against Bolton doesnt seem to reflect on it. Bolton didnt get a decent shot on goal. Man U needlessly give away a penalty which Fergie was outraged about. He wanted a clean sheet to have a healthy goal difference. The only difference in this match was none other than Ronaldo. He seem to have a knack to perform against Bolton. He was the chief tormentor in the very first match he played when he first arrived in 2003. And again in this fixture, he set up 3 goals to Wayne Rooney and Park Ji Sung, with the last assist goes to Alan Smith!

To me, i find this replay as an extra fixture to fulfill. If given a choice, i will give up the FA cup and the Champions League for the Premiership title. But on the other hand, if Man U win this replay, Apr 15 against Chelsea is inconsequential as it will be used to play FA Cup semi final ties.

If by watching the last match against Bolton having any hints going into this replay, i believe Fergie will go for the kill. He took out Ronaldo and Giggs when the scoreline was 3-0. And i also going to put my last dollar for Alan Smith to be selected for this tie. Paul Scholes will be serving the last of his 3 match suspension. Gary Neville, Saha, Edwin Van Der Sar, Solskjaer, Evra and Silvestre are out with injuries. Fergie have called up a youth team defender, Craig Cathcart and Dong Fang Zhuo for the match.

As for Boro, Julio Arca and Emanuel Pogatetz will be out for this tie.

Odds and Analysis: When i first saw Man U's handicap of 1.25 at 1.975, who will in the right frame of mind to take Man U handicap?? This match will end in draw and settled the tie in extra time or penalty kicks.

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

Weekend Outlook (17 Mar 2007)

Manchester United vs Bolton Wanderers

"...I certainly would also hope to see Alan Smith finally getting the chance to shine and repay that faith that I have in him since his Leeds days...."

- JayWalk, 17 Mar 2007

On a normal day, I would have lamented a draw as a bad result. Worse, if it results in an extra, if not unnecessary replay to jam the already congested fixture schedule. When it comes to the run-in towards the end of the season, the luxury of rest days get increasingly more valuable as the season draws near.

However, the last draw against Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium in the FA Cup was a crucial, if not tactical one and in contrary, was actually a good result.

With a spate of injuries and suspensions, we were severely tapped out and if we can't overcome the hurdle in a single bound, it does actually make sense to break it up into 2 steps.

Like an old golf saying. As long as the ball gets to where it is supposed to be, nobody cares how ugly your swing is.

I would expect ManUtd to deploy the same tactic against AS Roma in the Quarter-Finals of the ECL. Fight for a draw first (win would be better, of course), then bring them home for the kill. In the case of the ECL where away-goals is in play. A high scoring draw away would be ever better. Still, a simple win would trump that anytime.

Coming back to the last game, kudos to Boro for making a spirited fight that took us all the way to the final whistle. We may have had more possession but in terms of shots attempted and shots-on-goal, we are pretty even. And so, the 2-2 draw seems like a pretty fair result.

Looking ahead, we will be meeting them again on Monday as a result of the ManUtd vs Euro XI friendly in midweek. This is going to be a tough game in terms of stamina it means only a Sunday rest tomorrow before the boys head out to the pitch again. Fortunately for us, it would be the same for Boro. In terms of fitness, we are a notch above Boro and couple that with home ground advantage, I don't see how we can't get through to the next round. My only worry is perhaps if we have more players injured or suspended after today or if Fergie, for some reason or another, field a fringe team come Monday.

JayWalk The Talk: As I have mentioned, we have a full house in the sick bay with van der Sar, Fletcher, Solksjaer, Silvestre, Evra and Saha all injured. Larsson has completed his last game for us while Scholes is still serving his suspension. Dong FangZhuo is probably on the way back to Guangzhou on international duty but I doubt if the Ch1nese strikers will get to feature in the EPL anyway to begin with, but the chance to see him on Monday is now a negative with certainty.

Coming into today's game, we will have Kuszczak manning the sticks and Ferdinand has been cleared to play today after a cracked rib scare which turned out nothing more than a bad knock. He should be partnering John O'Shea at the back and if the Irish lad plays today, it will be his 200th start for an English club. With the depletion of our squad strength, ManUtd will be looking to Rooney to bring in the 3 points. Expect the young lad to get himself onto the score sheet as he is currently 1 shot of 50 ManUtd goals. Giggs to score too? Let's hope so as he stands at 98. A nice brace today will get him his century of goals. I certainly would also hope to see Alan Smith finally getting the chance to shine and repay that faith that I have in him since his Leeds days.

At the opposite corner, things are not looking too good for Big Sam as he is staring at a possibility of a third consecutive defeat. Certainly not the best time to hit the pothole as they were, for a while, actually doing well enough to challenge Liverpool for a place in next season's ECL. However, we will see if Liverpool are able to use this opportunity to pull away and further consolidate they 4th spot but word around town says that it may be a draw at Villa Park. Anyway, if Liverpool managed to bring home the 3 points this weekend, if may mean that Bolton would have to settle for a consolatory UEFA Cup spot. That is, if they can hold off the challenge from teams like Everton, Reading, Portsmouth, Spurs and Blackburn.

You know things are not going right if we see Allardyce playing Kevin Davies today. Fresh out of the sick bay and hitting the pitch this week after a 6-week absence, Bolton must be desperate. I don't see how Davies is going to make an impact without first shedding 6 weeks' worth of rust. O'Brien will also not be available for selection today but other than that, I don't see any more selection problem for them, except a dip in general form for all players concerned.

Would I be too worried about Anelka? Nah. Diouf is the man that I would mark as Liverpool was stupid to have him slipped out of Anfield. He may have some disciplnary issues but his work ethics and skills more than compensate for the shortfall.

JayWalk The Walk: ManUtd is giving a 1-1/4 ball handicap with a decimal odds of 2.025. With van der Sar out of action, I don't have high hopes of keeping a clean sheet today. Still I think we have enough fire power to overcome the handicap with a hat trick of goals or even more if we are lucky.

Still I would have preferred a clinical 2-0 finish and rest up ahead of Monday's FA Cup replay against Middlesbrough.

Disclaimer: The above views are purely my own two-cents' worth. In other words, I cannot and will not guarantee that my predictions are accurate. If you want to bet on the game, do so at your own risk. Also, please bet responsibly and within your means regardless of how "sure thing" that game may appear to be. As the old saying goes, "The Ball Is Round". Good luck.

The Road To Athens - QF Preview Part 4

Chelsea

Chelsea has been a dominating club ever since the Russian Revolution where endless flowing of money kept attracting the big stars to the extent that their B-team is just as strong as many premiership clubs' own A-team.

Chelsea's successful has somewhat hit a damper as they find themselves in an unfamiliar 2nd spot behind ManUtd. Chelsea is 3rd on the Win Percentage, coming in at 68.97%. A slight improvement on the numbers after catching up on their game in hand with a slender victory over ManCity. While Goal Ratio of 1.76 (4th) may not be as good as ManUtd's, Chelsea's Leaking Ration is a respectable 0.66 (joint 2nd with ManUtd).

Despite all the fire power in the club, Mourinho is struggling on a few counts. Misfiring stars like Shevchenko and Ballack makes it hard for the manager to justify his spending. Just as bad are the stars that were bought but never use as a result of overcrowding. John Terry is also causing a minor scare for his dragging of feet with regards to signing a new contract. Heck, even Mourihno's own future is suspect when it is known that the gaffer is fast losing favour in the eyes of Abramovich.

Still, with a excellent form of 10 consecutive unbeaten games, it is hard not to see Chelsea cruise by this round with relative ease.

JayWalk's Seeding: 1st

Valencia

Earlier I said that the Italians are having a horrid season in the ECL, the Spaniards are worse with big guns like Real Madrid and Barcelona facing a shock early exit from the tournament. Instead, we have dark horse Valencia occupying 1 of the 8 places in this next round.

Valencia weighs in with unimpressive numbers with a Win Percentage of 53.85% (6th) and Goal Ratio of 1.42 (7th) and Leaking Ratio of 0.92 (7th). However, in their defence, the Spanish Liga this season has been a very tight one for there is no one team that totally dominated the division like Inter Milan or Glagow Celtic or the ManUtd-Chelsea duo.

As for recent forms, Valencia is pretty average with a 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. However,one point to note is that they have not won their last 4 away games. Certainly a piece of important intelligence heading back to Stamford Bridge.

JayWalk's Seeding: 7th

JayWalk Thoughts - Chelsea vs Valencia?

I think Valencia will not stand a change against the onslaught of Chelsea. Chelsea will be kicking off this round as the home team in the first leg and it could all be over within that 90 minutes, given Valencia's relatively poor away form. I foresee Chelsea going in for the kill early and whack them a few more goals in order to comfortably cruise through the 2nd leg.

Part and parcel of building up towards the end of the season as the Blues are still in the running for the FA Cup as well as the EPL league title. There are still 9 games to go in the EPL and with the recent shaving of points gap from ManUtd's 9 to 6, I would be surprised if Chelsea aims for 15 Apr 2007, when the ManUtd and a win there may just decide the eventual league winner.

Coming back, it is a case of David vs Goliath in a clean room. No rock there for David to deliver that fatal blow. Valencia to be crushed.

The Road To Athens - QF Preview Part 3

AS Roma

By far, a more formidable Italian representation in this season's ECL than AC Milan but I think this is going to be a miserable year for the Italians, regardless. Currently 2nd in the Serie A with a good Win Percentage of 62.96% (4th) and an impressive Goal Ratio of 2.04 per game (3rd). If AS Roma wishes to go far in this tournament, they will need Captain Totti to single-handedly carry the entire team through, just like what Roy Keane did for ManUtd in 1999. Totti, at 31 years old, may no longer be as fresh and quick as he used to be but he is one heck of an inspirational talisman when the time calls for him to go above and beyond. Totti also has the dubious honour of being fouled the most (30) in the ECL tournament. It is a wonder he is still on the pitch uninjured!

Roma's recent home form is starting to wane a little bit with a 5-4-1 in the last 10 domestic games. Still, it looks like things have started to stabilised a bit with a win after 2 consecutive draws. And this is together with the crushing of Lyon in the previous ECL round.

Anyway, from here to the next ECL game, we have a little over 2 weeks and we will have to wait to see how AS Roma continues to perform over the next few games before we have a clearer picture how they are to fare against ManUtd.

JayWalk's Seeding: 3rd

Manchester United

I would have seeded ManUtd first, if not for the fact that they have been under-performing of late and all the scrappy wins were more of a matter of luck than anything. ManUtd come into this round with impressive stats. Win Percentage is 79.31% (1st) with 66 goals scored (1st) and only 19 (1st) conceded. As for Goal Ratio, they are second to PSV Einhoven at 2.28 (2nd) on account of the fact that ManUtd played a game more than PSV Einhoven in their respective domestic leagues.

It is no secret that Sir Alex Ferguson is chasing for a second treble and their FA Cup hopes where kept alive with a hard-earned draw at Middlesbrough. With the draw for the semi-finals already revealed, it looks like a place in the FA Cup final is a shoo-in as long as ManUtd can win the quarter-final replay this coming Monday.

With a 9-point leading presently, there should be no distraction from the EPL derailing ManUtd's ECL campaign. However, I feel that it would be exceptionally hard with the FA Cup still in the running. It was destiny back in 1999 that we captured the treble but what are the chances lightning will strike a second time?

I hate to be a pessimistic wet blanket but I feel that the present-day team fares below the team of 1999. Hence my seeding to cast them as a slight underdog.

JayWalk's Seeding: 2nd

JayWalk Thoughts - AS Roma vs Manchester United?

It is a real pity that one of my top 4 seeds will be eliminated in this round. Technically speaking, ManUtd has the slight edge but with their scrappy form, I can't really give my vote with much confidence. ManUtd will have a hectic next week for fortunately, there is enough time for rest before traveling to Roma for the first leg of the quarter-final.

Speaking of quarter-final, ManUtd has the advantage of starting this round playing away first. With neither team having played each other this season so far, there is the element of unknown and as such would be a plus for ManUtd to take them with a pinch of surprise. I foresee the importance of the away goal in this round and it may just be the ticket to decide which team goes through.

If I were to pick a team for this round, I would go for ManUtd to scrape through. Probably a scoring draw at Roma and then a narrow win or another draw at Old Trafford. In the case of the latter, ManUtd would advance, as I have mentioned earlier, on the back of the away-goal rule.

Given my high seeding for these two teams, who ever wins this round will have a place in the finals as I foresee them having no problem winning the subsequent semi-final round.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - Match Weekend 17 - 18 Mar 2007

Looks like I get to breathe a little easier with a 4-point lead but still within striking distance from my fellow challengers.

Also, we have a couple of guys closing in on the century-mark. Let's wish them all the best in achieving it. The Top 5 will be waiting, on the other side, to welcome you.

As for the rest slightly further down the rung, fret not. Keep up the predictions, if not this week, then next. We have plenty of matches left for you to hit the 100.

Good luck.

EPL49: SUN 17/03 Manchester United vs Bolton Wanderers on ESPN at 20:45am SIN/HKT

EPL50: SUN 18/03 Aston Villa vs Liverpool on ESPN at 21:35pm SIN/HKT

Good luck and good game!

The Road To Athens - QF Preview Part 2

PSV Einhoven

The Dutch league is a little bit like the Scottish league in the sense that it is always the same one or two teams winning the title year after year after year. In The Netherlands, if not PSV Einhoven, then Ajax Amsterdam. If not Glasgow Celtic, then Glasgow Rangers. See the pattern? And the added coincidence is the inclusion of a dark horse this year, in the race in the likes of AZ Alkmaar for the Dutch and Hearts for the Scots.

Coming back to PSV Einhoven, they are currently in pole position in the Eredivisie leading with a massive 8-point gap. You may argue that ManUtd is even more impressive with a 9-point gap but that is with Chelsea having a game-in-hand. PSV Einhoven pulled away with a 8-point lead on level ground.

Despite being held to a goalless draw last weekend, PSV Einhoven is 2nd among the 8 teams in the Win Percentage category (75.00%) but is top of the table with a 2.29 (1st) Goal Ratio as well as the best defensive record of 0.54 goals per game (1st) in the Leaking Ratio.

With only 6 games to go before their season is over. The 8-point lead virtually seals the title for them. Hence, perhaps the next target for them to set their sights on would be that of the ECL. Unlike AC Milan, they are free to pursue the ECL trophy without the need to risk their league title chances or even a spot in next season's ECL at the very least.

Hence, I fancy them quite a bit with a high seeding.

JayWalk's Seeding: 4th

Liverpool

The problem with Liverpool is that they don't have a decent striker. Crouch is a joke while Fowler is a has-been. Bellamy is ill-disciplined while Kuyt is yet to find consistency. Gone are the days when Rush or Dalglish were to strike fear in every team's defense. Sure, everyone would say that they have Stevie G aka Gerrard but face it, he is also human and can't carry the team every day.

Liverpool Win Percentage is 55.17% (5th) while Goal Ratio is a pathetic 1.52 (6th). They do however can take comfort with a 4th best Leaking Ratio of a mere 0.69 goals per game. So what it means is that while they can't score goals, they don't really leak much either. Lotsa goalless draws or wins by the odd goal?

Currently in 3rd position in the English Premier League, Liverpool look set to yet another ECL next season. Granted that they may be easily overtaken by Arsenal (1 point behind, 2 games in hand), they are still 6 points away from current 5th placed Bolton Wanderers.

Liverpool's current domestic form is bad with 3 defeats in the last 5 games. However, they seemed to have a knack of doing things right when it comes to European fixtures. Hence a middle-of-the-pack seeding. Otherwise, I would have placed them lower down the pecking order.

JayWalk's Seeding: 5th

JayWalk Thoughts - PSV Einhoven vs Liverpool?

Statistics-wise, PSV Einhoven practically beats Liverpool in every single category. However, it must be noted that the level of football in The Netherlands is slightly below England, albeit not by a lot. Hence, it would be foolish to write Liverpool off so easily, simply based on the numbers laid out before you. Don't forget Liverpool is one of the European aristocrats with 5 European Cups under their belt.

It will be a close one between these two teams and it may all go down to who would do better in their respective home matches. I would go for PSV Einhoven to nick this round by the skin of their teeth. As for Liverpool, they have a pretty even shot at taking this round but I foresee that if they are lucky enough to scrape through this round, they certainly would not get past the next.

The Road To Athens - QF Preview Part 1

The second has been completed and the draw for the Quarter-Finals is set.

Given the top-class calibre of this tournament, it is hardly surprising to see top names in the likes of Inter Milan, Olympique Lyonnaise, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal, etc. to be absent from the Quarter-Finals.

After all, there are only 8 places available and before you know it, there will be only 4 and then 2 and finally the Champion.

Anyway, the draw has thrown up a few surprises as well as a few disappointments. Most notably of which is that English teams not only managed to occupy 3 of the 8 available places, but also managed to avoid each other in the early round. On the flip side, there is only 1 Spanish representative left.

So without further ado, here what I see in the crystal ball for these 8 teams:

AC Milan

Traditionally, one of the power houses in the European scene with notable names like Ruud Gullit and Marco van Basten, just to name a few, has been struggling of late in
the Serie A. Currently languishing in 6th position and a high risk of missing a place in next season's ECL tournament (unless of course, they win it here). However, it must be noted that their lowly ranking is a result of a 8-point deduction as a result of punishment meted out due to match fixing corruption last season. With the 8 point added on, they would be sitting in 3rd spot behind Roma and Inter Milan. Still it is a sub-par season for them and here's why.

With 27 games played in the Serie A thus far, AC Milan won only 13. Thus, Win Percentage is dismal 48.15% and ranked Last among the 8 teams in the quarter finals. With only 37 goals scored for (tied Last with Valencia) and 24 against (also tied Last with Valencia), their Goal
Ratio is a mere 1.37 per match (Last) and a Leaking Ratio of 0.89 per match (6th).

However, they seemed to fare better on the Euro front with Kaka leading the Top Scorers chart (6) and it is also no surprise that he would also be leading the Shot-On-Goal chart with a impressive haul of 16.

With football schedules being so hectic, it is a wonder how teams managed to cope with the congested fixtures. Naturally, managers would have to prioritise each competitions and sacrifices would have to be made, if necessary. Hence, domestic cups in each country are normally played for pride only. The real motivation behind each team these days is money, money and more money. Money from TV rights, commercial endorsements, gate receipts as well as memerobilia sales. Money has a chicken-and-egg effect. If you have money, you can afford better players and better resources, that usually translate to better performance and hence attracting more money to come in as well as superstar player more willing to be lured by the smell of your money.

Coming back, it seems that AC Milan has had a good streak going on unbeaten in their last 10 games. However, it is still a long way for them with 12 matches to go before the season is over and I expect their resources to thin significantly during the run-in. That's when I think AC Milan will start running into trouble. I seriously that AC Milan will have a problem coping with both the ECL as well as the Serie A. Both gets you a spot in the ECL tournament next year but Serie A offers 4 places while ECL offers only one. Which would be the safer route to take to ensure another financially bountiful year? AC Milan, as I have said earlier, is in 6th and only 4 points away from the 4th spot. With 12 games to go, they better start their ascent now, in particular the need to overtake surprise minnows like Palermo and Empoli. Granted the Lazio is also within striking range, a 4th spot would be a more comfortable goal to shoot for for now being going after
the bonus prize of the 3rd spot.

JayWalk's Seeding: 8th

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich recent giant killing of Real Madrid in the second round has gotten every bookmaker scrambling to revise the German's outfits odds. Ask anyone to name a famous German team and more often than not, the name Bayern Munich gets mentioned. Those glory days however, are a thing of the past as we have less familiar names like Werder Bremen and Schalke04 dominating the headlines. Even Sttugart is above Bayern Munich in the current German league. The consolation is that Bayer Leverkusen, Hertha Berlin,
Hamburg and Borussia Dortmund are even worse off. Still, none of these teams have the proud pedigree of a Euro powerhouse like Bayern Munich. Like Real Madrid, the fear factor is long gone and the old masters no longer command the respect of the young punks.

And rightly so for Bayern Munich, while comfortably seated in 4th of the German league has the worse defensive record amongst the 8 teams in the current ECL quarter-finals. The current Leaking Ratio is 1.20 (Last) and the only team with a Leaking Ratio greater than 1.0. From a
simplistic mathematical point of view, it means that clean sheets do not exists as far as this team is concerned. Time to call it a day for Oliver Kahn, I guess. Bayern Munich's Win Percentage is 52% (7th) but in there defence, their league is pretty tight and the top teams are very evenly match. Hence, even with the apparently poor 13 wins out of 25 games, there are merely 2 victories less than the current leader, Schalke04.

JayWalk's Seeding: 6th

JayWalk Thoughts - AC Milan vs Bayern Munich?

A poor defence is the perfect recipe for failure but a poor attack can be just as fatal. This is a interesting game between one that leaks the most goals and one that scores the least. Perhaps the winner of this fixture would depend on who is the lesser of the two evils.

In this particular case, my vote goes to Bayern Munich on account of the fact the AC Milan is doing relatively worse. AC Milan simply cannot ignore the financial disaster if they fail to acquire a spot in the ECL next season. Again like I said, it is always safer to get that place via finishing 4th or better in the Serie A, rather than going after the ECL trophy for the latter does not allow any mistakes.

I look for AC Milan to abandon their Euro campaign and start focusing on the Serie A soon. Maybe the time is now since qualifying for the 2nd round of the ECL already yield quite a tidy sum of money in the kitty. Granted of course moving further up would yield even more but the cost of not qualify next season is even bigger. Running a team is the same as running a business. Bottom line must be taken care of. Besides, a club will be less attractive to star signings if it does not provide the opportunity of them playing in the ECL.

Bayern Munich should advance in my opinion but I doubt if they can travel further than that.

SPUG EPL Prediction League - FA Cup Weekend 10 - 11 Mar 2007

A great weekend for me as I extend my lead to 4 points with a bountiful plunder of 8 points. Most unfortunate for weimeng to miss out of Saturday's prediction. Would have prefer to win this weekend under less dubious circumstances.

Fortunately, kudos to weimeng for an excellent damage-control prediction that got him 4 points on Sunday.

Here's a word of encouragement to the rest of the lads as the Top 5 await to welcome the rest of you guys to hit the 100-point mark. Leading the way is crash632 with a mere 4 points away and Bedokian slightly behind with 7.

Come on guys!


SPUG EPL Prediction League "Perfect Score" Hall Of Fame
Perfect Score = 2 correct-score predictions in a single weekend and hence the award of the full 10 points.

1) Cha_Dum_Yen (24 Sep 2006), (25 Nov 2006)
2) Bedokian (24 Sep 2006)
3) TheSaint888 (24 Sep 2006)
4) Voxeros (24 Sep 2006)
5) David.hvp (25 Nov 2006)

Scoring System
3-Points for a correct outcome (Win, Lose or Draw)
1-point each for correct score on each side.

Double Entry
Later submission shall override earlier submission.

Penalty
No points for submission after kick-off. (Disqualification)

SPUG Blackout
Also, this is a mirror for the SPUG Server where the actual prediction game is being carried out at http://www.spug.net/showthread.php?t=85183. In the event SPUG server goes down, we will automatically carry on the prediction game at this blog site.

As usual:

1) If you have spotted a mistake, please let me know where and what so that I can amend them accordingly.
2) Please check your scores for accuracy as soon as possible before I update the table during the next round of scores. Once the table has been updated, the old table will be overwritten.
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